DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

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DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  Guest on Thu 11 Sep 2014, 5:17 pm

In trying to simply clarify a point about the DNA evidence of Madeleine Mccann in the hire car, I delved into the PJ files and, well, couldn't really find anything to back up what I'd always thought, which was roughly this:

1) that the first report was 99.9% certain the DNA belonged to Madeleine.

2) that the second report then said 'actually we are not sure'.

3) that the samples were then purposely destroyed.

But actually reading the files, I'm not sure this is the case. In the first report there is talk of a low-copy technique being used to show that 15 alleles of one sample matched to Madeleine Mccann.

I've heard it said before that 15 alleles (from a total of 19) is basically a complete match (it's like four fingers of your hand matching with a hand print sample, so that one can basicially say, the hand matches completely).

But then there's this issue of the alleles coming from a soup of 3 to 5 people, including family members. And that because of the fact that Madeleine shared DNA with her family members, they could have given rise to the 15 alleles.

So I'm really quite confused. I always thought this was one of the biggest pieces of evidence against the Mccanns; now I think maybe it's quite innocent (though then you have the DOG alerts!!! so what the f**k)

I want to stress, I really am not looking to start a debate on this, with people giving their opinions.

Rather I just want an opinion either from an expert; or from someoone who can see I'm mssing something.

The question is: is this evidence strong or is it actually subject to various interpretations? And were the Mccanns actually telling the truth on this score, when they said the DNA just came from the twins?



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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  Justformaddiemccann on Thu 11 Sep 2014, 5:43 pm

I'm not an expert but we have to remember that GA has said that the fluids found in the car where consistent of that of frozen cadaver, cadaver was found on the cars key fob and also, not to sure about this but a footprint was found at the boot of the car, consistent with lifting a heavy weight. Not sure but I think the footprint matched the partial blood print from 5A.
Please don't quote me on the prints cause I'm not sure, but I have read about that before!
IMO

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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  EileenC on Thu 27 Aug 2015, 2:47 pm

How likely is it that a microscopic spot of DNA that cannot be detected by the human eye would be made up from 3 to 5 donors? I would like to know the mathematical probability of it being a chance match. Unfortunately science and maths were never my best subjects.
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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  Andrew on Thu 27 Aug 2015, 5:30 pm

60 %. 

15 out of 19 = 79 %
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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  bluebell on Thu 27 Aug 2015, 6:10 pm

It's beyond my knowledge, but mitochondrial dna has been mentioned hasn't it?

http://www.forensicprofiles.com/dna.html



All mothers have the same mitochondrial DNA as their daughters. This is because the mitochondria of each new embryo comes from the mother's egg cell. The father's sperm contributes only nuclear DNA. Comparing the mtDNA profile of unidentified remains with the profile of a potential maternal relative can be an important technique in missing person investigations.


Last edited by bluebell on Thu 27 Aug 2015, 6:12 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : adding link)

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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  Andrew on Thu 27 Aug 2015, 6:23 pm

Will have to skip answering that at the mo, bluebell. 

Only because I've not got a clue whatsoever.
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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  bluebell on Sun 30 Aug 2015, 6:55 pm

Andrew wrote:Will have to skip answering that at the mo, bluebell. 

Only because I've not got a clue whatsoever.


Don't worry Andrew, I don't understand it either.

I will look it up properly though because this DNA business has always bothered me a lot, especially with MBM's apparent lack of DNA in the flat and all the funny business with the FSA (?) and their changing reports. flower

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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  Andrew on Sun 30 Aug 2015, 9:44 pm

Yes, all the DNA stuff (lack of) is yet another mystery within the mystery. 

FSS 

Fiddling Someones Samples I believe it stands for.
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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  chirpyinsect on Sat 12 Mar 2016, 9:01 am

Came across this whilst looking for the exact date the car was hired by the Macs




There are also papers relating to the previous rental which I think was to a Dutch driver. What seemed an odd coincidence, and it may be nothing, but it was delivered to and collected from the Hotel Atlantico in Praia da Rocha
Was that the hotel that the taxi driver took passengers he thought were M and others to?


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The Dutch Connection

Post  What's_up_doc? on Sat 25 Mar 2017, 10:10 am

I'm very interested in the Dutch connection. We know Kate and Gerry lived in Amsterdam when Madeleine was a baby and Gerry would have networked, as he does. We also know the villa the McCanns moved into after they left Mark Warner accommodation, was situated at The Rua das Flores and was owned by someone referred to in the case file as A*******  H****** who was Dutch. After the McCanns departed it was occupied by the owner for a short time, before being let to a couple he was friends with. This is inference but I believe the McCanns may have known this man as they obtained the property at short notice for an indefinite time and I believe the Dutch man in question  only let to friends or acquaintances as there were no pre-existing bookings as far as I can tell.

The rental car was returned on September 23 by an unnamed male described as six foot tall with short grey hair of about 60-65 years old. Who returned the car? Could it be the Dutch man? Why was his signature illegible? Another Dutch connection referred to in the case files is a reported sighting of GM at the Vila D'Art, a property the McCanns travelled to in July. This property also belongs to someone described as from Holland and or the UK. I need to check the date the McCanns returned to England and the chain of custody for the hire car.

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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  chirpyinsect on Sat 25 Mar 2017, 1:55 pm

Not forgetting the Dutch friend who returned Gerry's wallet after it was stolen in London. The one that the thief kindly posted to the address on the driving licence with the €30 still inside and the precious photo of Madeleine. Swift turnaround given the new owners in Queninborough would have to get it to Rothley then whoever collected it had to fetch it and get it to the Dutchman. All done within 10 days. Hmmm.

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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  What's_up_doc? on Sun 26 Mar 2017, 6:36 pm

That's really interesting Chirpy - do you have anymore information on the person who found the wallet? I've added this statement about the DNA evidence as it is very clear and seems to be helpful.


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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  Bampots on Sun 26 Mar 2017, 8:54 pm

WUD do you have a link for that please?

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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  What's_up_doc? on Sun 26 Mar 2017, 9:01 pm

Hey Bampots here it is:

 
http://gerrymccan-abuseofpower-humanrights.blogspot.co.uk

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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  Bampots on Sun 26 Mar 2017, 10:41 pm

Thanks....wud!

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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  What's_up_doc? on Fri 31 Mar 2017, 9:08 pm

chirpyinsect wrote:Not forgetting the Dutch friend who returned Gerry's wallet after it was stolen in London. The one that the thief kindly posted to the address on the driving licence with the €30 still inside and the precious photo of Madeleine. Swift turnaround given the new owners in Queninborough would have to get it to Rothley then whoever collected it had to fetch it and get it to the Dutchman. All done within 10 days. Hmmm.
I've been reading GM's old blogs and I think there is something to add :

Day 52, June 24 2007: Gerry noted for first time the family need to move if Madeleine isn't discovered in next few weeks.

Day 57 June 29 2007: Gerry writes that a friend from Amsterdam, who has been actively campaigning to publicise Madeleine's disappearance, dropped in to see them for a couple of hours, as he was on a golfing holiday in the Algarve. This is the same man we can infer, who brings back Gerry's wallet as this is mentioned in next sentence.

Day 58 June 30 2007: "We confirmed our new accommodation and will be moving in the next few days." That's very short notice!

 Day 59 July 1 2007: friend heads home, McCanns spend day packing.

I think there is a link between this anonymous Dutch friend and the accommodation - it seems too coincidental IMO. Could this also be the mystery man who returned the hire car? Interestingly, Gerry does not name him, even though he's generally keen to name  check people who have helped with the campaign. I'm going to try and find a name...

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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  mumof6 on Sat 01 Apr 2017, 6:26 pm

There was some story in the early days that Gerry was not Madeleine's biological father.

24 Horas even claimed that they had found the father via the clinic.

Gerry's answer was something like "how would they know which clinic we used".


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-487063/I-AM-Madeleines-dad-Gerry-McCann-rejects-claims-sperm-donor-used-IVF.html


If that were true, then there is no way that her DNA could be matched by a mixture of DNA from the rest of the family.


Was it ever disproved? Did they ever sue 24 Horas?
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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  candyfloss on Sat 01 Apr 2017, 7:05 pm

mumof6 wrote:There was some story in the early days that Gerry was not Madeleine's biological father.

24 Horas even claimed that they had found the father via the clinic.

Gerry's answer was something like "how would they know which clinic we used".


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-487063/I-AM-Madeleines-dad-Gerry-McCann-rejects-claims-sperm-donor-used-IVF.html


If that were true, then there is no way that her DNA could be matched by a mixture of DNA from the rest of the family.


Was it ever disproved? Did they ever sue 24 Horas?

Here is the story with the front page cover of 24hours....


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1565936/McCanns-deny-reports-that-Gerry-is-not-Madeleines-father.html

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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  candyfloss on Sat 01 Apr 2017, 7:06 pm

Just as an aside and for information they were going to sue the paper Tal & Qual, but it went bust...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/madeleinemccann/6057918/McCanns-drop-libel-case-against-Portuguese-newspaper.html

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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  What's_up_doc? on Sat 01 Apr 2017, 7:17 pm

That's very interesting - thanks to you both. I also read that a coloboma eye is a genetic mutatation, which would therefore influence the DNA profile of Madeleine - I wonder if that was considered by the lab? I've attached a link explaining coloboma:

https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition/coloboma#inheritance

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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  mumof6 on Sat 01 Apr 2017, 11:14 pm

What's_up_doc? wrote:That's very interesting - thanks to you both. I also read that a coloboma eye is a genetic mutatation, which would therefore influence the DNA profile of Madeleine - I wonder if that was considered by the lab? I've attached a link explaining coloboma:

https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition/coloboma#inheritance


As far as I know, DNA profiling works by looking at specific bits of the DNA, parts that were called "junk DNA" when I was at school because they don't seem to be coding the genes.

Anyway, the DNA is made up of amino acids, and in parts of the DNA they have very short sequences of the same amino acids repeated multiple times. How many times varies between people, quite a lot, and it the the number of repeats of the various short sequences that are being looked at.

So, it is not looking for the genes for blue eyes, for instance, or curly hair, and the coloboma is also unlikely to be in the area being sequenced. Given that about 98% of our genes are shared with a chimp, we really don't want to look at the vast bits that don't vary much between people, it would not help.


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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  What's_up_doc? on Sat 01 Apr 2017, 11:27 pm

mumof6 wrote:
What's_up_doc? wrote:That's very interesting - thanks to you both. I also read that a coloboma eye is a genetic mutatation, which would therefore influence the DNA profile of Madeleine - I wonder if that was considered by the lab? I've attached a link explaining coloboma:

https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition/coloboma#inheritance


As far as I know, DNA profiling works by looking at specific bits of the DNA, parts that were called "junk DNA" when I was at school because they don't seem to be coding the genes.

Anyway, the DNA is made up of amino acids, and in parts of the DNA they have very short sequences of the same amino acids repeated multiple times. How many times varies between people, quite a lot, and it the the number of repeats of the various short sequences that are being looked at.

So, it is not looking for the genes for blue eyes, for instance, or curly hair, and the coloboma is also unlikely to be in the area being sequenced. Given that about 98% of our genes are shared with a chimp, we really don't want to look at the vast bits that don't vary much between people, it would not help.


Thanks mumof6 - that's low copy DNA right? Because they only had very small, tiny samples to work with? It's also very easily contaminated. I think I saw a diagram of the actual samples somewhere, I'll see if I can find it.

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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  mumof6 on Sat 01 Apr 2017, 11:32 pm

As far as I know it is all DNA profiling, we have to use the bits that vary, not the bits that say what a muscle cell looks like which don't vary very much.

The low copy DNA does what it says, it copies the relevant parts over and over again, so that we have enough to produce a profile. Because we are copying the DNA that is present, a single cell that is contamination from Mr Policeman can really mess things up, he will get copied too.
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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  What's_up_doc? on Sun 02 Apr 2017, 11:38 am

This is a tricky subject for me but I found this chart on a CMoMM thread helpful!

19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
A 100% match is the equivalent of 19 markers
15 markers from bodily fluids found in the hire car, match Madeleine's profile
All 4 markers found under the tiles, match to Madeleine's profile
11 markers is all that is needed in some US states for a conviction
13 markers in other US states, is all that is needed for a conviction
Under Portuguese Law, all 19 markers are needed for a conviction

The black line is the lowest figure at which any country mentioned will convict someone and as you can see the blood found under the tiles is way below that level.


The black line should be between 11-12.

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Re: DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

Post  What's_up_doc? on Sun 02 Apr 2017, 11:40 am

This was the comment regarding hire car DNA. It seems that interpretation of days is important.


The 15 markers found in the hire car is another matter altogether. Originally it was reported as 15/19 markers, but then the infamous John Lowe report later mentions contaminated samples, with even more markers added to the mix. It is important here to remember that 15 markers found still match to Madeleine. But we are being forced to consider by the defence that other people have also contributed to this sample, which means it is no longer significant.

They have the DNA profile of the person who collected the sample. They have the DNA profile of the person at the FSS who tested the samples. So if they wanted to, they could have shown this in the final report for everyone to see how many markers are not in Madeleine's profile, but they did not. 


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