General Election Discussion - before and after the event

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Who will win the General Election ?-

37% 37% 
[ 7 ]
37% 37% 
[ 7 ]
5% 5% 
[ 1 ]
21% 21% 
[ 4 ]
 
Total Votes : 19

Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  candyfloss on Wed 07 Jun 2017, 9:28 am

AndyB wrote:
candyfloss wrote:I have added a poll as to who you think will now win, after this long campaign, with  less than 2 days left.
There's no option for a hung parliament

Thank you , have now added that option.... you can vote now Smile

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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  Freedom on Wed 07 Jun 2017, 9:31 am

1. Conservatives
2. Labour
3. Liberal
4. Others

Where is the hung parliament option?
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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  Antonia on Wed 07 Jun 2017, 9:33 am

I agree a hung Parliament is quite likely IMO. We need that option.
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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  candyfloss on Wed 07 Jun 2017, 9:35 am

Antonia wrote:I agree a hung Parliament is quite likely IMO.  We need that option.

See my post 2 posts up - it is there now!

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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  Freedom on Wed 07 Jun 2017, 9:38 am

There's still only the four original options for me. Am I having a senior moment?

P.S. It's there now.
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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  candyfloss on Wed 07 Jun 2017, 9:41 am

It's ok, it came out ok for me, but then because the poll is already voted on, it will not take another option now.

I have changed No4 to be No winner - hung Parliament instead of the 'other' option. It would be very unlikely if any of the others would win outright. Smile

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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  AndyB on Wed 07 Jun 2017, 9:55 am

candyfloss wrote:
AndyB wrote:
candyfloss wrote:I have added a poll as to who you think will now win, after this long campaign, with  less than 2 days left.
There's no option for a hung parliament

Thank you , have now added that option.... you can vote now Smile
Thanks Very Happy
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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  Mimi on Wed 07 Jun 2017, 10:09 am

Remember we are voting as to who we think will win - not who we want to win.

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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  candyfloss on Wed 07 Jun 2017, 10:15 am

Even their own members don't trust them, Shocked


Denise‏ @Rocker_Denise · 2m2 minutes ago

Even their own members don't trust them. #Labour #Conservatives #UKElection2017




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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  AndyB on Wed 07 Jun 2017, 10:17 am

There's another poll here that I suspect will be even less representative of the actual result than this one
https://ge2017.gritdigital.co.uk/#2017-opinion-poll
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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  candyfloss on Wed 07 Jun 2017, 11:24 am

I did think the other day when I said I felt sorry for Dianne Abbott that something was not right at all. She has always been a 'mouthy and fiesty' sort of person (not in a nasty way) and she was just so flat and slow in her last few interviews. It would seem that she has been diagnosed with a serious illness...




11:17






Diane Abbott
BBC
Diane Abbott has a "serious long-term illness" that "she's been coming to terms with", Labour international trade spokesman Barry Gardiner has said.

In an interview with Talk Radio's Julia Hartley-Brewer he said: "Diane is clearly not well and I understand that it's a condition which has been diagnosed and it's long term."

Mr Gardiner said Ms Abbott was a "feisty performer", but her illness was the reason behind recent stumbling TV interviews.

"Everybody is aware that Diane did not perform well on a couple of programmes, but what we didn't know was why and I think that's become clear," he said.

"We haven't been told what the condition is but she's been diagnosed.

"I don't have her medical condition - I'm given to understand she's been diagnosed with a medical condition, which is a long-term condition - and clearly she's been coming to terms with that."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-40157259

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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  Mimi on Wed 07 Jun 2017, 5:49 pm

If you take away all the noise, it seems there is only Hobson`s Choice :-

To continue with austerity and privatisation OR watch the UK be consumed by Sharia Law and Wahabism.

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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  bluebell on Wed 07 Jun 2017, 6:34 pm

Bit long to copy over, worth a read ?


http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/uk-austerity_uk_59366ad3e4b013c4816aaac2?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D748798835_uk

This Is What The UK Has Lost Since Austerity Measures Were Introduced
67,100 things in total.

Here’s what we’ve lost to make it this far...

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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  Mimi on Thu 08 Jun 2017, 12:32 pm

Just been round to vote - what a harrowing experience.

I had to play `spot the tory` and it was swarming with them. You can spot `em a mile off.

Oh and there was our local MP in his personalised number plate big car - you can bet your boots he`s bought his photographer along.

I walked round with my neighbour - and guess what - he voted Tory. How dare you .... you Judas I exclaimed all the way home.

I give up - what will be will be.


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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  espeland on Thu 08 Jun 2017, 2:18 pm

I was going to vote, until I looked up the result of the 2015 election here ... Labour would need to increase its vote by almost 100% to win Surprised  What's the bl**dy point?
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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  AndyB on Thu 08 Jun 2017, 3:53 pm

espeland wrote:I was going to vote, until I looked up the result of the 2015 election here ... Labour would need to increase its vote by almost 100% to win Surprised  What's the bl**dy point?
Eh? Can you explain your calculations please? I thought they needed around a 12% swing compared with the 2015 election
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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  candyfloss on Thu 08 Jun 2017, 4:27 pm

From what I read she only has to lose 6 seats? That is easily achievable I would think.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/is-theresa-may-six-seats-from-losing-the-election

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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  candyfloss on Thu 08 Jun 2017, 4:30 pm

How's this for logic and wanting the best leader for your country from a pro McCann. She hopes he loses becauses some antis like him WTF!!


Rebecca ☘️‏ @loverandomleigh · 40m40 minutes ago

Replying to @_Babalou_

I hope Corbyn loses, mostly because of his fan girl nasties from #McCann. Sue Rico & CL etc

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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  bluebell on Thu 08 Jun 2017, 5:32 pm


Current State of the Parties
Dissolution of Parliament

The dissolution of Parliament took place on Wednesday 3 May 2017. All business in the House of Commons has come to an end and there are no MPs. Every seat in the Commons is vacant until after the general election on 8 June 2017.

Party Seats
Vacant 650
Composition of the House of Commons at the end of the 2015-17 Parliament

The list below details the composition of the House of Commons at the end of the 2015-2017 Parliament, based on the number of MPs in each party. If an MP was not a member of a political party they are counted as an 'Independent'.

Party

Seats

Conservative 330
Labour 229
Scottish National 54
Liberal Democrat 9
Democratic Unionist 8
Independent 4
Sinn Féin 4
Plaid Cymru 3
Social Democratic & Labour Party 3
Ulster Unionist Party 2
UK Independence Party 1
Green 1
Vacant 1
Speaker 1
Total number of seats 650
Working Government Majority 17
Speaker: John Bercow. Deputy Speakers: Mr Lindsay Hoyle, Dawn Primarolo and Mrs Eleanor Laing.

Government majority calculated as Conservative MPs less all other parties. This calculation excludes the Speaker, Deputy Speakers* (2 Labour, 1 Conservative) and Sinn Fein.

Seats won at the 2015 General Election

Party Seats
Conservative 330
Labour 232
Scottish National Party 56
Democratic Unionist Party 8
Liberal Democrat 8
Sinn Fein 4
Plaid Cymru 3
Social Democratic & Labour Party 3
Ulster Unionist Party 2
Green Party 1
Independent 1
Speaker 1
UK Independence Party 1
Total number of seats 650

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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  espeland on Thu 08 Jun 2017, 5:57 pm

AndyB wrote:
espeland wrote:I was going to vote, until I looked up the result of the 2015 election here ... Labour would need to increase its vote by almost 100% to win Surprised  What's the bl**dy point?
Eh? Can you explain your calculations please? I thought they needed around a 12% swing compared with the 2015 election

I was referring to my constituency, not the National situation:

Conservative 24,736
Labour 13,484


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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  bluebell on Thu 08 Jun 2017, 6:27 pm

espeland wrote:
AndyB wrote:
espeland wrote:I was going to vote, until I looked up the result of the 2015 election here ... Labour would need to increase its vote by almost 100% to win Surprised  What's the bl**dy point?
Eh? Can you explain your calculations please? I thought they needed around a 12% swing compared with the 2015 election

I was referring to my constituency, not the National  situation:

Conservative 24,736
Labour         13,484


Go out and vote espeland, you know it makes sense    cheers     Wikipedia says it much better than me, but your vote is so important - every vote is important.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_voting

In the 1997 UK general election, Democratic Left helped Bruce Kent set up GROT - Get Rid Of Them - a tactical voter campaign whose sole aim was to help prevent the Conservative Party from gaining a 5th term in office. This coalition was drawn from individuals in all the main opposition parties and many who were not aligned with any party. While it would be hard to prove that GROT swung the election itself, it did attract significant media attention and brought tactical voting into the mainstream for the first time in UK politics.

Since then tactical voting has become a real consideration in British politics as is reflected in by-elections and by the growth in sites such as tacticalvoting.com who encourage tactical voting as a way of defusing the two party system and empowering the individual voter. In the 2005 UK General Election individuals set up tacticalvoting.net to balance the tactical voting debate. For the 2015 UK general election, http://voteswap.org was set up to help prevent the Conservative Party staying in government, by encouraging Green Party supporters to tactically vote for the Labour Party in listed marginal seats.


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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  espeland on Thu 08 Jun 2017, 7:03 pm

[quote="bluebell"]
espeland wrote:
AndyB wrote:
espeland wrote:I was going to vote, until I looked up the result of the 2015 election here ... Labour would need to increase its vote by almost 100% to win Surprised  What's the bl**dy point?
Eh? Can you explain your calculations please? I thought they needed around a 12% swing compared with the 2015 election

I was referring to my constituency, not the National  situation:

Conservative 24,736
Labour         13,484


Go out and vote espeland, you know it makes sense     cheers     Wikipedia says it much better than me, but your vote is so important - every vote is important.


Well, https://www.tactical2017.com/#Burton is telling me to vote Labour, but if everyone needed to achieve the required result did vote, then some 20% of the town's population would need to vote tactically. If I were to go to the polling station, there'd be a likelihood of me having a heart attack - even if I were to survive, I'd put an extra burden on the underpaid and overstretched hospital staff. I'm afraid I'll have to depend on tactical voters in other constituencies to get Jeremy into No 10.

But I will miss those featured in #dogsinpollingstations. On the other hand, I've slept for 2 hours this afternoon, so should be able to watch one of those results programs till at least 2am.





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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  AndyB on Thu 08 Jun 2017, 7:47 pm

espeland wrote:
AndyB wrote:
espeland wrote:I was going to vote, until I looked up the result of the 2015 election here ... Labour would need to increase its vote by almost 100% to win Surprised  What's the bl**dy point?
Eh? Can you explain your calculations please? I thought they needed around a 12% swing compared with the 2015 election

I was referring to my constituency, not the National  situation:

Conservative 24,736
Labour         13,484


Oh I see. Sorry,  I misunderstood.  

Still, that only needs a 25% swing from the conservatives to labour, which isn't a million miles from some of the polls

(25% of 24,000 is 6,000. 6,000 off the tory vote leaves them with 18,000, add the same 6,000 into the labour vote and they end up with 19,000 = labour majority of 1,000)
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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  Andrew on Fri 09 Jun 2017, 6:57 am

Good call about it being a Hung Parliament, AndyB and Antonia, I think it was.
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Re: General Election Discussion - before and after the event

Post  Freedom on Fri 09 Jun 2017, 7:20 am

There were 3 people who selected the hung parliament option.

A surprise to me, that's the second in recent years.
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