DNA match in hire car: Not so sure now

What's_up_doc? wrote:This is a tricky subject for me but I found this chart on a CMoMM thread helpful!

19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
		A 100% match is the equivalent of 19 markers
		15 markers from bodily fluids found in the hire car, match Madeleine's profile
		All 4 markers found under the tiles, match to Madeleine's profile
		11 markers is all that is needed in some US states for a conviction
		13 markers in other US states, is all that is needed for a conviction
	Under Portuguese Law, all 19 markers are needed for a conviction

The black line is the lowest figure at which any country mentioned will convict someone and as you can see the blood found under the tiles is way below that level.


The black line should be between 11-12.

Yes, and it is confused by the fact that other family members *could* have contaminated the samples.

If we think about just one marker, they are very varied, and I am likely to have 2 different types of that marker in my DNA, from each of my parents. Lets call them A and B.
My husband also has 2 different types of the marker, and they are unlikely to match mine (though they could, but unlikely), so lets call them C and D.

We each pass one of the markers on to our children, so our children could be AC, AD, BC, BD - again, just looking at one marker for simplicity.

So, if we mixed all the blood in our family we would get a mix of ABCD on that one marker. However, each of the children have only 2 of those markers, so we would need the "spare" 2 markers to have been the ones to degrade to get a match to any one child... possible, but how likely?

To be sure, DNA testing is done on 19 markers, and they found Madeleine's DNA type matched 15 of them, the other 4 were not found as the DNA was degraded. They also did not find any of the "spare" markers in the DNA that other family members would have, but Madeleine would not.

So, to me, it seems unlikely that the DNA from other family member would have created the 15 out of 19 match.

Thanks mumof6 you have explained that really clearly. When I saw the chart, it really did look easily identifiable as a significant result. I think the hire car result is going to be hugely significant in the end game, I'm sure a clearer analysis of the results, with explanation as to probability of absence of these 'spare' markets would be incriminating. I also think the McCanns know the significance, otherwise they wouldn't need to come up with bizarre attempts to explain team away, with nappies and rotting meat!

What's_up_doc? wrote:Thanks mumof6 you have explained that really clearly. When I saw the chart, it really did look easily identifiable as a significant result. I think the hire car result is going to be hugely significant in the end game, I'm sure a clearer analysis of the results, with explanation as to probability of absence of these 'spare' markets would be incriminating. I also think the McCanns know the significance, otherwise they wouldn't need to come up with bizarre attempts to explain team away, with nappies and rotting meat!

Looking at the John Lowe report, he is saying that there were at least 3 people who contributed to the DNA profile in the car, and that, in his opinion, that does not prove anything as Madeleine's profile would be a mix of both parents.

It is certainly true that a mix of DNA from both parents is likely to have all the DNA markers that Madeleine has. However, it depends on what else they found whether it is significant.

It is also interesting that they found a double peak in the one marker that Madeleine has twice - they therefore only count that as 1 match, but really, if it is found doubled up, shouldn't the result be 16 out of 20?

Given that they are looking at 10 pairs (Madeleine had one pair that matched from both parents) it would need expert testimony about the other DNA markers that were in there, and the report does not attempt to tackle that question. There is absolutely nothing to answer whether the other 2 profiles are even McCann family profiles, it just suggests that they could be.

Yes, a mixture of DNA from both parent is likely to match all the DNA of any child; but there would be all the other profiles present too, and if it is not, then what is the probability?

Hi everyone, I can "kick" myself for not remembering the link.  I have read in another script, that this is now becoming a very very interesting topic.  I know it starts with "Black". But in that part the writer sets out another thing that is so disturbing that I now doubt quite a few things.

There was also a search of a hotel closeby.  In apartment C.  There they discovered hair samples that resembles   JANE TANNER - RUBERT MURAT!  The three little girls on the same holiday was born DAYS APART!!!  Kate had problems conceiving.  They had to use another method.  THIS IS JUST A THOUGT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ..........could Jane Tanner have anything to do (maybe with the egg cells to implanted into Kate when she was ready? IT IS CLAIMED - KATE'S CHILDREN AND JANEs kids look verrrrrrrry alike?  Is this the missing part) It is known that Kate is her friend, but she is not so keen on Ger?

Which 3 girls, Curious?

From memory, Jane's daughter was born about 3 months (not days) after Madeleine and the next nearest in age (the Paynes' elder daughter) was 15 months younger.

curious wrote:Hi everyone, I can "kick" myself for not remembering the link.  I have read in another script, that this is now becoming a very very interesting topic.  I know it starts with "Black". But in that part the writer sets out another thing that is so disturbing that I now doubt quite a few things.

There was also a search of a hotel closeby.  In apartment C.  There they discovered hair samples that resembles   JANE TANNER - RUBERT MURAT!  The three little girls on the same holiday was born DAYS APART!!!  Kate had problems conceiving.  They had to use another method.  THIS IS JUST A THOUGT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ..........could Jane Tanner have anything to do (maybe with the egg cells to implanted into Kate when she was ready? IT IS CLAIMED - KATE'S CHILDREN AND JANEs kids look verrrrrrrry alike?  Is this the missing part) It is known that Kate is her friend, but she is not so keen on Ger?

Lesley Denton, FSS, confirms that Madeleine is the natural daughter of Kate and Gerry - first report on here:

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm

Yes but he also says:
Please note: I understand that the McCANN - s have a second female child. It therefore remains a formal possibility that the DNA on the pillowcase could have originated from her as the genetics would be in keeping with those described above.

So Gerry could have produced Amelie's pillowcase for the police and the DNA result would have been exactly the same.

Sorry, but no.
There's a very clear Forensic report, which says that the McCanns have another daughter, but her DNA doesn't match the findings.
I don't have time as I'm "serving" doggies and preparing dinner for myself. But I'm sure you'll find the reference easily.

ETA it's all in the PJ files.

Number of pages: 2

Re: Abduction of Madeleine McCann on 3rd May 2007

A DNA profile has been obtained from the reference samples of Amelie Eve McCANN (SBM/2) and Sean Michael McCANN (SBM/3).

In this case, all of the bands present in the profiles of both Amelie McCANN and Sean McCANN are represented in the combined profiles of Kate HEALY and Gerald McCANN. This is what I would expect to find if Amelie McCANN and Sean Michael McCANN were their natural children.

Neither the DNA profile of Amelie McCANN nor Sean McCANN matches that from the pillowcase (SJM/1) and therefore in my opinion, neither Amelie McCANN nor Sean McCANN can be the source of this profile.

^^^
This is from the link from Canada, the next part down.

Thanks - I stand corrected :-) (apologies)

But it is very confusing Canada isn't it? That's the next page down

Whoa!

When confronted with the fact that Madeleine's DNA was collected from behind the sofa and in the boot of the vehicle and analyzed by a British laboratory, situations also described before, he says that he cannot explain.

dogs don't lie wrote:Whoa!

When confronted with the fact that Madeleine's DNA was collected from behind the sofa and in the boot of the vehicle and analyzed by a British laboratory, situations also described before, he says that he cannot explain.

Where is this from DDL?

Sorry chirps, it's from the pj files, GMs suspect interview.