Thoughts on the case from criminal profiler Pat Brown

we have a rough idea of what happened on may 12th but it would be helpful to build up a picture of may 18th as well. This may not be relevant but it's interesting

May 18 2007 from the Times

The campaign to find Madeleine McCann has applied for British and European trademarks to protect its fundraising, internet and print promotions. The applications, which were filed on May 18, seek to protect the name "Madeleine’s Fund: Leaving No Stone Unturned". The European application also seeks protection for the provision of social services and advice for people affected by missing children.

also here are the early photos from may 18th     http://www.prphotos.com/p/SPX-012891/kate-mccann-at-parents-of-missing-child-madeleine-mccann-gerry-and-kate-mccann--may-18-2007.html?&ps=1&x-start=8

still not convinced that the pink top isn't underneath the orange one. btw how long IS that orange top in the LP? Compare with this

http://c8.alamy.com/comp/D7M9FW/gerry-mccann-and-kate-mccann-take-their-twins-D7M9FW.jpg

Here is a closeup of the McCanns going into the OC on that day:
http://www.gerrymccannsblogs.co.uk/18May2007/amelie-mccann-missing-british-3-year-old-girl-madeleine-mccann-in-portugal-0FMvXv.jpg

The pink t-shirt is much longer and looser fitting than the orange t-shirt.
Which is why I'm convinced Amelie in the LP is wearing the pink t-shirt, and the colour has been flipped in Photoshop. So easy to do.

Edited to make it just a link.

canada12 wrote:Here is a closeup of the McCanns going into the OC on that day:
http://www.gerrymccannsblogs.co.uk/18May2007/amelie-mccann-missing-british-3-year-old-girl-madeleine-mccann-in-portugal-0FMvXv.jpg

The pink t-shirt is much longer and looser fitting than the orange t-shirt.
Which is why I'm convinced Amelie in the LP is wearing the pink t-shirt, and the colour has been flipped in Photoshop. So easy to do.

Edited to make it just a link.

Except that the orange top has a pink flower and the pink top has an orange heart.





So much easier to change tops in real life than in Photoshop.

Here is the orange top on the 19th May. Looks baggier than in other pictures.

amazing spot, Seahorse ..... that orange top in the LP does look a bit too big, not so much a top as a mini dress. Meanwhile S's outfit going into OC on may 18th was very distinctive, long blue shorts. Picking up on Canada's point a few posts back, it would have stood out a mile if it had been included in the LP.

Yup, you're right. I defer to the finer detail. Good spotting Seahorse.
And Gerry is carrying a bag over his shoulder as they're going into the OC. You can just see it peeking out behind him. Roomy enough for some extra clothes. And a camera.

Hellsbells wrote:amazing spot, Seahorse ..... that orange top in the LP does look a bit too big, not so much a top as a mini dress. Meanwhile S's outfit going into OC on may 18th was very distinctive, long blue shorts. Picking up on Canada's point a few posts back, it would have stood out a mile if it had been included in the LP.

To complicate matters, the pink top has also been spotted with an orange flower however.



So were there two sets of orange and pink tops? Or was the flower removable (seems dangerous with a toddler)?

the plot thickens!!! Interestingly, that balloon photo was taken on may 12th, the other day when Dad was wearing the LP kit.

seahorse wrote:

Hellsbells wrote:amazing spot, Seahorse ..... that orange top in the LP does look a bit too big, not so much a top as a mini dress. Meanwhile S's outfit going into OC on may 18th was very distinctive, long blue shorts. Picking up on Canada's point a few posts back, it would have stood out a mile if it had been included in the LP.

To complicate matters, the pink top has also been spotted with an orange flower however.



So were there two sets of orange and pink tops? Or was the flower removable (seems dangerous with a toddler)?

I vote for several tops. They might have been bought in a package that sold them together? Plus Madeleine had clothing too. It's not impossible Amelie is wearing a top belonging to Madeleine.

canada12 wrote:

I vote for several tops. They might have been bought in a package that sold them together? Plus Madeleine had clothing too. It's not impossible Amelie is wearing a top belonging to Madeleine.

That's what I think. That's why the orange top looks tight in some and baggier in other photos. One belonged to Amelie and one to Madeleine.

The pink top came with shorts too.

Spot on. I think you've sussed it.

And why might Sean have been edited out of the LP?
What was the length of his hair during the week Madeleine disappeared?
What was the length of his hair on May 12 or May 18?
Had he had a haircut?

Here is the entry for day 23 of Gerry's blog.

Day 23 -26/05/2007
Saturday

Yesterday was relatively quiet although we did meet the British ambassador and the senior British Police Officer who has been working here in Portugal on the case. This was a productive meeting. There was a flurry of activity amongst the media here stating the family was openly critical of the Portuguese policed which was not true. We did our best to dampen this down but a couple of papers carried stories with our ‘frustration’ with the investigation rather than what we said it was frustrating that 3 weeks down the line we still have not got Madeleine back. This would be the case which ever country we were in. Some of you may have noticed that Sean and Amelie did manage to squeeze in a hair cut!

The only 2 pics of S taken on 18/5 and his head is covered. Why?

canada12 wrote:

Spot on. I think you've sussed it.

And why might Sean have been edited out of the LP?
What was the length of his hair during the week Madeleine disappeared?
What was the length of his hair on May 12 or May 18?
Had he had a haircut?

Maybe Sean wasn't present when the LP was taken?

Let's look at the 18th May:

The McCanns brought Sean and Amelie to the crèche on 18th May. Gerry brought his bag.



Gerry and Kate left bag at the crèche.



Kate is spotted later on with Amelie. No sign of Gerry or Sean. Amelie now wears a white top. No sign of the pink sunhat. Notice the pink hairclip (there's a pink hairclip on the sunhat in the LP). It's around noon  judging by the short shadows.



Gerry joins with bag, but still no Sean. The pink sunhat is back.



Later on that day. Gerry has a change of clothes (same as in LP). Amelie has a change of hairstyle. Pink hairclip gone. Pink sunhat gone. No bag.



Later on that evening, Gerry has had another change of clothes and seems to have caught the sun.

that is a great sequence Seahorse, many thanks.

Meanwhile...... may 18th 2007, Father Paul Seddon reads a prepared statement to the media:



I will return as soon as I have established the time when he delivered this, because that time will be crucial. Nice warm sunny day though.

good video of Father Paul on may 18th 2007 here:

http://www.aparchive.com/metadata/Portugal-Missing/febda541b8498d84fc4b49cc9a9b47bd?query=CELEBRITY+NEWS&current=5&orderBy=Relevance&hits=5&referrer=search&search=%2Fsearch%3Fquery%3DCELEBRITY%2520NEWS%26allFilters%3DMadeleine%2520McCann%3APeople%2CRichard%2520Branson%3APeople&allFilters=Madeleine+McCann%3APeople%2CRichard+Branson%3APeople&productType=IncludedProducts&page=1&b=9b47bd

not a mid day shadow. but I wonder if he was there when they were here (no shadows because they are in the shadow of the apartments).

chirpyinsect wrote:

canada12 wrote:

And why might Sean have been edited out of the LP?
What was the length of his hair during the week Madeleine disappeared?
What was the length of his hair on May 12 or May 18?
Had he had a haircut?

Here is the entry for day 23 of Gerry's blog.

Day 23 -26/05/2007
Saturday

Yesterday was relatively quiet although we did meet the British ambassador and the senior British Police Officer who has been working here in Portugal on the case. This was a productive meeting. There was a flurry of activity amongst the media here stating the family was openly critical of the Portuguese policed which was not true. We did our best to dampen this down but a couple of papers carried stories with our ‘frustration’ with the investigation rather than what we said it was frustrating that 3 weeks down the line we still have not got Madeleine back. This would be the case which ever country we were in. Some of you may have noticed that Sean and Amelie did manage to squeeze in a hair cut!

My bolding. This was just a couple of days after the LP was released.

I'll say this next bit cautiously because I know this has been controversial in the past.

Back in 2007 there was a little group of us who believed Gerry and Kate were using the blog for purposes other than just conveying day to day information about their lives. Sometimes, we noticed, there were odd comments that didn't seem to make complete sense, or seemed irrelevant, or odd. Sometimes, we wondered, were they conveying information to the other Tapas members in plain sight, the same way messages were conveyed in newspaper ads with spycraft?

The wording of the bolded sentence, when suggested in context with the LP, might explain Sean's absence. Perhaps the original photo did show Sean and Amelie together but...perhaps Sean had a haircut...and it was necessary to remove him...and "squeeze" Amelie in closer to Gerry.

Just a thought.

if this did happen, it would explain the lack of a shadow behind A because a new background would have had to be taken with nobody in it, and the 3 figures pasted in. Also why Dad is hovering.

There was certainly a deliberate reason why G 'squeezed' in the line about S and A having 'squeezed' a haircut in. And why it was so important for them to have a hair cut so soon after they're telling the world there big sister was 'abducted'.

I always thought that was more to do with possible sedative trace.

Some good work upthread and very interesting indeed.

Agree - brilliant work from all.

So, if this theory is correct:

The need for to prove that Maddie was around at lunchtime on 3rd becomes pressing. Perhaps awkward questions are being asked about lack of DNA in the apartment and independent sightings of her are not forthcoming. Perhaps, as poster said the other day, the other children and/or certain Tapas memebrs were questionning whay they hadn't actually seen her later in the week? Anyway, the urgency to prove her presence on 3rd is growing.

So:

Last photo taken on 18 May, showing Gerry and Amelie (perfectly centred and framed within the photo, btw, I think the positioning of this photo looks 'right' whereas with the addition of Maddie it doesn't look correctly centred, imo):



Gerry returns to UK 3 days later to find photos (and fetch pillow DNA (did this happen then?)). According to Phil: "Gerry wants to go through all the photographs and pick some to put on the website. The more images there are, the more she will be in people's minds." http://www.mccannfiles.com/id280.html

He returns a day or 2 later with Clarrie.

2 days later the Last Photo is released to the public.



2 days after that Gerry in his blog brings attention to the fact that the twins have had their hair cut.

All in the space of a week or so.

The 18th would made more sense than 12 May as why would GM wait for another 9 days before returning to the UK with it?

All speculation and theory, as ever.

Another reason for Sean to be missing from the photo is that he might have had a meltdown.

There have been comments about Sean being the sensitive one, he was approaching the terrible-twos, the change of routine caused by holidays can be stressful for children, God only knows what he witnessed during the run up to Madeleine's disappearance and then there was the chaos of the days that followed possibly made worse by disturbed sleep patterns if he was maybe imo no longer being sedated.

That's an awful lot of pressure for a toddler so he might have thrown the mother of all tantrums and you can't have a convincing photo of the perfect family on a perfect family holiday with a child's face that's red and swollen from crying.

Not saying that is what happened, but it's worth considering.

the sequence of may 18th photos posted by Seahorse on p17 and canada12 before that show that S was with parents early in the day but then absent from all subsequent photos even though A was present. I don't have a copy of the book so I don't know if there was a reason for this.
incidentally the easterly sun in this photo suggests a surprisingly early time of 7 - 7.30 am, but it was the beginning of a hot day - around 20C already by 8am and a max of 29 later in the day. (It does look a very warm day in the LP)

Gerry's blog from 20th May 2007 with thanks to pamelam http://www.gerrymccannsblogs.co.uk/DIARY_BLOG.htm#d17 :
Interesting bits in bold.


Day 17 - 20/05/2007
Sunday

A Day to day life for the McCanns

Our day starts around 6.30am with us all waking up around the same time. We have breakfast with Sean and Amelie and our close family/friends who are here with us. Then its clean nappies and clothes for Sean and Amelie followed by showers etc for the rest of us.  

Usually there’s some free time then for a few stories or games with the twins before heading out.

9.00-9.15 We take Sean and Amelie to Kids’ Club. They really enjoy it and run in.

They know the staff well and the staff are all excellent. Both love the domestic corner and Amelie particularly likes to look after ‘babies’. We use the kids club a bit like nursery at home but we think Sean and Amelie still think they are on holiday!

9.30~12.15. We return to the apartments, usually for a series of meetings with our press officer, Mark Warner Reps, occasionally Consulate staff, lawyers and British Liaison officers. During this time we catch up with family and close friends, usually by telephone and discuss ideas how to keep Madeleine’s profile high especially throughout continental Europe.

12.30 Time to pick up Sean and Amelie from Kids’ club then head back to apartment for lunch, which has usually been prepared by one of our family/friends group who have been tremendously supportive.

13.30 –14.30 This is time to spend time playing with the twins either in the apartment or in the play area next to kids club.

14.30-15.00 Usually we take the twins back to Kids’ Club although Sean has had the odd afternoon in the apartment as it’s a bit cooler and he’s not much of a sun worshipper! They have been taking part in many different activities including painting, singing, stories, swimming, trips to the beach and they have lots of toys to play with.

15.00~17.00 We try to get some time together alone, going for a walk to talk things over or getting some exercise. This is often the time for quiet trips to the church for prayers.

17.00-17.30 Meet kids for high tea with other mums and dads. They love pasta and have been doing really well with their vegetables although a few chips have been squeezed in.

17.30-18.30. Games with kids at play area. Amelie loves trying to get in the baby pool!

18.30-19.30 Bath and story time with the twins.

20.00 We put the kids to bed.

20.30-23.00 We try to sit down for a family meal, again usually cooked by one of the small family group out here with us. Chat about the day’s events and plan the next day

23.30 bed and prayer for Madeleine that she will be returned to us safely ASAP.

The 18th would made more sense than 12 May as why would GM wait for another 9 days before returning to the UK with it?

Good point Dee coy. The 12th, being M's birthday would cause a lot more focus on the parents movements and less time to sneak off to set up the photo. 6 days later there would be slightly less attention paid to every move especially if they traded a photo op such as the sequence Seahorse posted for a bit of privacy later.
As for Sean being there or not I think that maybe another member of the gang was walking with them and it may just be that he/she was holding his hand when the shots of A were taken with Kate. Interesting area to develop though.

ETA just saw Seahorse's post which might explain his absence. Good find.

I am interested that they were photographed entering OC at breakfast time on may 18th because the shadow cast on A's orange top by her hat is more consistent with a sun coming from her left (east), which is where it would have been around that time. Also at that time of day her own shadow would have been cast to her right, which would explain why there isn't one behind her. Things are beginning to make sense. But Dad still looks as if he's been added later on (remember he had navy blue shorts on at breakfast time) because A's shadow would have been projected onto him.

Hellsbells wrote:I am interested that they were photographed entering OC at breakfast time on may 18th because the shadow cast on A's orange top by her hat is more consistent with a sun coming from her left (east), which is where it would have been around that time. Also at that time of day her own shadow would have been cast to her right, which would explain why there isn't one behind her. Things are beginning to make sense. But Dad still looks as if he's been added later on (remember he had navy blue shorts on at breakfast time) because A's shadow would have been projected onto him.

And there would have been fewer people around the pool at breakfast time, which explains the lack of sunbathers or anyone else in the background of the LP.